By Neil Shah
In a sign that pressures in Europe’s troubled bond markets are easing, debt-laden Portugal successfully raised �1 billion ($1.27 billion) in cash from private markets on Wednesday.
Prices of euro-zone government bonds are also stable or slightly higher, with the cost of insuring against sovereign-debt defaults in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain falling and the euro advancing.
It’d be worrying if these bond prices weren’t rising � since the European Central Bank is now raising cash and buying them, supporting prices.
“The auction represented a very important test for Portugal and more in general, for the periphery. We would judge today’s result as positive overall,” analysts at UniCredit said in a note.
Investors should keep a close eye on upcoming bond sales by the U.K. and countries on Europe’s fringe.
Italy had to pay a slightly higher interest rate to raise cash on Tuesday, though that’s understandable given the tumult in markets. The U.K.’s debt managers also sold �2.25 billion in bonds Tuesday.
The next test comes Thursday, when the Italian government tries to sell a longer-term bond, though analysts expect demand to be solid.
Today Spain will test the capital markets with a downsized E2-3 billion 5 year issue (from E4.5 billion) carrying a 3% coupon. The yield on the note is expected to come higher than existing comparable maturities which are trading at 3.3%, thus pricing will likely be in north of 3.5%. At the end of March, Greece managed to raise 5 year bonds at 2.8%: there are no concerns that Greece will be able to repeat that result, much to the negative P&L of all those who bought into the last bond issue. "Spain is firmly in the eye of the storm, and the Spanish
treasury cannot allow this sale to fail," said Jose Garcia
Zarate at consultancy 4Cast. Yet as we showed yesterday, traders are not so worried about Spain, whom they have pretty much written off now, as the UK, France and Germany. In the meantime, the PIIGS fire is raging: Greek 3 Years just hit 15%, as its CDS trades 30 bps wider since the NY close, now at 877 bps. And the eye of the hurricane is moving west: Portugal CDS hit another high of 456 bps today, implying a 33% chance of a sovereign default. Lastly, the euro is plunging and after hitting an overnight support in the low 1.27 area, has bounced slightly. Spain will need all the help it can get. In the very least, today will be a test whether the recent rumor spread by a prominent nationalized and GGB heavy UK bank, that Spain has requested a E280 billion rescue package, was true or not.
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